MBS Day Ahead: 8 Examples of New Year Bond Trading Themes


Posted To: MBS Commentary

This week promises a slow start due to the early close today and full closure tomorrow, but a strong finish due to Friday's NFP and the simple fact that it's a new trading year during a fairly volatile phase for markets. I've talked a lot in recent weeks about the general truths of new year trading, so I figured it was time to put together charts with examples of recent new year themes. Here are the 7 most interesting new year trends/reversals of the past 8 years. 2 of them didn't make the cut because nothing new happened, but 7 out of 9 is more than enough to suggest a risk of volatility ahead. As the charts show, the bigger volatility risk is for that of a reversal, although there's at least one notable example of a rally actually accelerating. It's very important…(read more)

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