MBS Day Ahead: A Simple Framework For Approaching Rate Risk in the Coming Days

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

This morning's chart looks complicated at first glance, but it's actually very simple. It doesn't even matter if you're familiar with candlestick charts. All you need to know is that each candlestick contains the trading range on any given day. With that in mind, it's easy to see how narrow and sideways things have been since the beginning of last week. There are two recent examples of similarly narrow behavior following a rally, the first example lasted much longer , but that's the only meaningful difference. We can use momentum indicators to draw more parallels. Those indicators appear along the bottom of the chart. In general, the higher the line, the weaker the momentum. Vice versa for a lower line. Hitting the ceiling or floor and bouncing in the other direction…(read more)

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