MBS Day Ahead: Auction Cycle Ends and Markets Ponder Fed’s Mood

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Less about data and more about Fed outlook 3.5-day weekend is also a consideration for tradeflows 2 distinct options correspond to holding vs breaking the current trend Can't read too much into today's trading though Today's chart contains the familiar consolidative trend–the converging teal lines that connect most of 2016's highs and lows. The way 10yr yields are moving inside that trend might as well be a readout of the Fed's rate hike mood. The more doubt that's cast over a June rate hike, the more likely yields are to remain inside that trend. The more the Fed is seen as hiking in June, the greater the risk that we break the upper line (with the implication being a showdown with the bigger-trend represented by the white line). While the data on these last two days…(read more)

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