MBS Day Ahead: Be Very Skeptical of Rate Forecasts and Technical Evidence


Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the day just passed, bonds kicked into higher gear with respect to the correction that began to materialize last Thursday. If you feel like you missed the signs, go back and read the second half of this post: Beware The Bounce . Several of the commentary articles after that spoke about additional confirmation of the shift in increasingly stern verbiage (browse past posts here or here ). Corrections are normal, but they're still no fun . 10yr yields moved all the way to 1.745% yesterday, surprisingly close to the 1.748% technical level I offered in MBS Live chat when asked about the next technical ceiling yesterday (when rates were still under 1.70). In the day ahead, I want you to keep in mind (if you don't already) that the notion of technical analysis somehow allowing us to predict…(read more)

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