MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Head to Tribal Council, Econ Data Casts Votes

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Even if you're like me and have only watched survivor a few times, that's enough to understand the dynamic in bond markets today. Bonds can "survive" by holding under 1.59% in terms of 10yr yields and they can thrive (win the immunity challenge?) by breaking below 1.52%. They actually did have immunity for a while at the end of last week, but this has been a new week. Specifically, they've have since spent the last 2 days rejecting that break below 1.52%. Each new instance of major economic data between now and Friday's NFP is like another trip to tribal council. Longer term momentum (lower pane of the following chart) is right on the edge of shifting back toward higher rates. The ADP Employment report just cast its vote to start the day and bonds were allowed to remain…(read more)

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