MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Quickly Find Themselves Defending 2.55% Ceiling

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

The domestic bond market woke up this morning to find itself pushed up against the same ceiling that had offered a friendly bounce late last week. Between now and then, we've seen solid enough progress to reinforce that ceiling, but now it is called into question after a few short hours of bad luck. Is it luck, though? Or is there some logical cause and effect in play? The overnight news and resulting chatter from traders and analysts blames one thing for this particular move: the Total Social Financing (TSF) figure released by China at 4am ET (also referred to as Aggregate Financing, essentially "loans"). The contention is that strong loan growth turns the cogs of the Chinese economy, thereby decreasing the odds of a global growth slowdown led by China and Europe. Easy enough…(read more)

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