MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Still Trading Fed Day Range

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Last Wednesday was Fed day and it marked a technical breakout for bond yields. As far back as June 2018, 10yr yields had been bouncing on a floor of 2.82%. Despite multiple attempts, yields never managed to confirm a break below that floor (they closed at 2.812% on one day in August, but would have needed to remain below 2.82% the following day in order to "confirm" from a technical standpoint. Today's chart doesn't include all of that history, but suffice it to say that no one would need a background in technical analysis to identify 2.82% as the only candidate for the bottom of the range before last week. On Fed day, yields ran all the way down to 2.75% before bouncing back up to 2.82% the next day. This effectively set the post-Fed range (2.75%-2.82)%. We've only traded…(read more)

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