MBS Day Ahead: Burden of Proof on Bonds to Justify Rally


Posted To: MBS Commentary

With 10yr yields having made it close to 2017's lower range in the most recent rally, the burden of proof is on bond bulls to come up with j ustification for any additional gains . Yesterday offered a brief glimmer of hope in that regard as bonds responded to the official start of the Brexit process as well as comments from the ECB that essentially told markets not to worry too much about rate hikes or the removal of stimulus. That helped bonds recover much of Tuesday's weakness, but notably, the entire "risk-off" trade (lower bond yields, stock prices, and Yen/$) ground to a halt without coming anywhere close to making new lows (i.e. 10yr yields didn't challenge the 2.30% area). For now, there's a risk that these metrics continue trending higher, leading back from…(read more)

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