MBS Day Ahead: Does NFP Matter?


Posted To: MBS Commentary

On average, NFP (the "nonfarm payrolls" component of the Employment Situation report which also refers to the broader report itself) is the biggest market mover in the history of the world in terms of economic reports. It generally doesn't go too far out of style until it starts saying the same thing repeatedly. In several ways, now is one of those times, sort of… Payroll counts have been been relatively flat in solid growth territory for more than 6 years now. This can be seen in a 4-month moving average of Private Payrolls (less volatile than nonfarm payrolls because the latter includes periodic mega-distortions from Census hiring) in the orange line in the following chart (the blue line is Private Payrolls themselves). In general, it's held between 140k and 240k. That's…(read more)

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