MBS Day Ahead: Fed Meeting Minutes Likely a Non-Event

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds are on a roll at the moment with 5 of the last 6 trading days resulting in lower yields. Rather than stand as some evidence of new strength in the bond market, this has more to do with technical correction as more than 60% of the trading days since early October have resulted in higher yields. More to the point, before the 6-day rally mentioned above, the previous 6 days saw yields rise nearly 30bps. We've only retraced about 20bps of that move so far, with today's overnight session helping the cause noticeably. If we zoom the chart out a bit more, we can see the bigger-picture consolidation (and the fact that yields are pushing the bottom boundary as of today). These sorts of technical movements/bounces can serve as cues for risk averse borrowers/originators to favor locking…(read more)

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