MBS Day Ahead: Fed Reading From Same Script as Jobs Report

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Last week, I stunned the world by claiming that NFP (the nonfarm payrolls component of the big jobs report) "didn't matter." OK, maybe not the whole world, and maybe people weren't completely stunned, but in the long-term market following context, such claims are risky business. I'll admit, I was tempted to second guess myself when the number crushed expectations and bond yields spiked quickly, but I doubled down in that morning's analysis, essentially saying this too would pass. Simply put, while historically massive market movers will always command some short-term volatility potential, their lasting impact is limited in this particular market environment. The first reason for that–these days anyway–is the trade war. While some pundits may claim that the parts…(read more)

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