MBS Day Ahead: Feeling Out The End Of 2018’s First Correction


Posted To: MBS Commentary

I started using some more serious words to talk about bond market weakness yesterday, but I'll make them simple and keep the assessment short this morning. In a nutshell, we've gone from tracking a linear, well-behaved, modestly-positive correction since February 22nd to wondering if that correction just ended . We're merely "wondering" because we haven't seen enough weakness to confirm it yet. We've also seen other examples of threats to the trend, but perhaps the more gradual approach means the 3rd time is the charm. Additionally, the last two occasions had help from a slump in stocks (technically, Fed day in late March helped bonds avoid breaking any higher than they did, and then stocks helped get bonds back down to 2.80%). That might have proved to be a floor…(read more)

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