MBS Day Ahead: Here Comes the Jobs Report

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

This morning brings the often-important jobs report. Traditionally, the key component has been nonfarm payrolls (NFP), which is just a tally of new jobs created during the past month. NFP is especially important in times of transition (i.e. heading into or out of a recession) as well as in times where markets are expecting labor markets to cool a bit after a strong run. In many ways, recent NFP data has filled that role recently. It's offered positive surprises with respect to how well the labor market is doing even though analysts wouldn't be surprised to see jobs data come off the boil. Simply put, it looked like average NFP was clearly declining from 2014 though 2017, but it's recently moved up and out of that downtrend. That's had noticeable ill effects on bonds. In addition…(read more)

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