MBS Day Ahead: Here’s That Mid-March Breakout We Were Looking For


Posted To: MBS Commentary

Sometimes a plan comes together and sometimes an educated guess pans out. While it's never safe to plan on any future reality (other than "uncertainty") when it comes to financial markets, there are times where a certain series of events seems more likely than not. For most of 2019, mid-March looked to be one of those times. The year began with a sharp move lower in rates–sharp enough that it was rejected with a bounce back toward higher levels. When that reactionary upward momentum found a ceiling, it set the stage for the sideways range of early 2019. Reason being: several factors underlying the market volatility wouldn't be resolved until mid-March. March has historically been a fairly volatile month for bonds, especially with respect to the Fed. March is the first Fed…(read more)

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