MBS Day Ahead: Here’s What a Bond Rally Costs in Terms of Stock Selling

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Anything more than 20 points is a big day of selling in terms of the S&P, but that's a small enough number to be relatively common, periodically. From there, a sell-off of more than roughly 33 points becomes much less common. By the time we're talking about anything over 50 points, examples are limited to only a handful every year (and NONE from August 2011 through August 2015). Sell-offs of more than 80 points have occurred exactly 3 times during the recovery from the Great Recession–all of them in 2018–and yesterday was one of them. The other two 80+ point S&P sell-offs were back in February, and we can basically throw the 2nd one out as being driven by whipsaw that was part of the same sell-off (aka, stocks bounced bigly on the way down and then returned for only a bit…(read more)

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