MBS Day Ahead: How Bad Could it Get (And Why It Won’t Get That Bad)

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

I've mentioned the comparisons between 2013 and the current selling trend several times recently. Most of those have been in response to journalists and analysts claiming some weird connection to high bond yields and stock market weakness. My contention was that a surge to 3% 10yr yields in 2013 didn't cause much of a stir in 2013, so why would 2018 be any different? Moreover, I noted that things happened a lot quicker in 2013 . Well, to be fair, they did and they didn't. I'll revise that last point just a bit and say that things happened at roughly the same speed if we examine the 1.5-month stretch leading up to the official tapering announcement. I'll never forget it. It began with a Wall St Journal article by John Hilsenrath who many believed had secret one-on-one meetings…(read more)

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