MBS Day Ahead: Inflation Data and Bigger Picture Considerations


Posted To: MBS Commentary

This morning brings one of the more important inflation metrics for the US economy via the "Incomes and Outlays" report. As the name suggests, the report measures incomes (referred to as "personal income" in the data) as well as "outlays." What's an outlay? In a word: spending. In the words of this report specifically: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)–basically a whole lot of jargony nonsense to say "consumer spending." The interesting thing about this data–at least as far as markets are concerned–is that it also contains a PCE Price Index. This is one of the first places the Fed looks to get a reading on long-term, broad-spectrum inflation. It's the annual "Core PCE" number the Fed would most like to see up around 2.0% before…(read more)

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