MBS Day Ahead: Markets Expecting a Challenging Auction and Hawkish Fed Minutes

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today's key events arrive in the afternoon in the form of a 5yr Treasury auction at 1pm and the release of the FOMC Minutes at 2pm. Not to be confused with the Fed Policy Announcement, the Minutes simply provide a more detailed account of the meeting 3 weeks prior that culminated in the most recent policy announcement (in this case, Jan 31st). Because that was a meeting with no rate hike, these meeting minutes are seen as a prime opportunity to foreshadow a hike in the March meeting. Even though the Fed Funds Rate doesn't move in lock-step with longer-term yields, it's important to know that the entirety of the yield curve moves up in anticipation of an eventual peak in the Fed Funds rate. As can be seen in today's chart, sometimes 2yr and 10yr yields follow the rise in Fed…(read more)

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