MBS Day Ahead: NFP Day is NFP Day

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the day just passed, bonds successfully stormed the castle, assuming the castle refers to 10yr yields with a "1" in front. At first inspiration came from follow-through trading of Wednesday's Fed events coupled with weak economic data at 10am. The day's biggest development was the announcement of new tariffs on China just before 1:30pm. This sent stocks into a tail-spin and sent bonds on a tear. The day ahead is all about NFP (the Nonfarm Payrolls component of the jobs report that has come to refer to the entire jobs report for many market participants). On average, this is the most important piece of economic data on any given month in terms of its ability to move bonds. Today is no exception, but we should also keep in mind that the labor market is one of the two things…(read more)

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