MBS Day Ahead: NFP Doesn’t Matter (Even If It Looks Like It Does)

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

First Friday of the month, and thus time for the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. Also known simply as "the jobs report," no other piece of economic data has as much of a track record of inspiring massive market movement. But in the current environment, no other piece of data is as far from its historical level of significance. Part of this is purely a factor of where we are in the economic cycle. Job growth and unemployment have been so good for so long that no one is really going to care much about it until it begins to show cracks. The more timely part has to do with the trade war and the fact that the manufacturing sector takes the biggest hit. Manufacturing comprises a small portion of job growth. Beyond that, the trade war resolution (or lack thereof) is something that will have…(read more)

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