MBS Day Ahead: One More Way to Look at Recent Volatility

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Yesterday brought an early interruption to the range breakout that began late last week. Such bounces merit caution as they often simply act as a short-term correction for a new, negative trend. A second day of stability today would be more meaningful as it would suggest other forces may be at work. What might those "other forces" be? There's a chance that bonds weren't actually ready to break out of the recent range, but instead got caught flat-footed by Trump's surprising Fed rate hike comments. In these summertime trading conditions (less liquidity ), and with a majority of the market comfortably betting on further flattening of the yield curve (2s and 10s moving closer together, largely due to rising 2yr yields), it doesn't take too much of an unexpected move in…(read more)

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