MBS Day Ahead: Only One More Thing to be Concerned About

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

With yesterday's big rally out of the way (a correction to a correction in the yield curve, as discussed in yesterday's close ), the most logical implication is for bond markets to get back to a slow, narrow, sideways grind ahead of another extended holiday weekend (half day tomorrow and fully-closed on Monday). But there's a nefarious technical pattern hidden amidst this week's positivity. It has to do with simple trendlines and our free will. As market watchers applying technical analysis (in addition to fundamental analysis, of course) to bond market movement, we have some latitude as to the placement of our trendlines. Sometimes there's really only one choice, but right now, there are two viable ways to draw the upper trendline for rates. One method–the one we've…(read more)

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