MBS Day Ahead: Probably One More Day of Waiting For Any Election Impact

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Justified or not, midterm elections are the market mover du jour. Midterm elections happen today, so it's fair to wonder if they will be a market mover today. They probably won't be! First, let me say that I've been wrong before when it comes to the finer points of the timing surrounding political developments (indeed, please feel free to write in if you have another understanding about what I'm about to say). But my understanding is that the first polls close at 6pm ET , which is, of course, an hour after the last bond trades of today's session. That means that we're more likely to see any impact from elections in overnight trading. The caveat would be that old chestnut about "x% of precincts reporting." You know how those news stations do that, right? In…(read more)

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