MBS Day Ahead: Secret Bond Market Playbook For Feb/March Handoff

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today's first chart is really uncanny–well, perhaps if you're some sort of technical analysis nerd, or just some guy named Matt who writes about technical analysis sometimes. We can stop short of uncanny and simply say it's fairly interesting. Why? Because, bond markets have done generally the same thing at this time of year on each of the past 5 years. Unlike those cool sounding technical studies that are named after someone or something (Bollinger Bands, Elliot Waves, Andrews Pitchfork, etc.), this sort of "history repeating" development doesn't really have a name. Even so, it's no less relevant from a technical perspective if bonds have generally done the same thing 5 years in a row! So what have they done? See for yourself. So we have a notable uptick in yields…(read more)

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