MBS Day Ahead: The Trend is Not Our Friend

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

The winter holiday season can be defined a few different ways. Most broadly, it refers to Thanksgiving through President's day. That's a bit too broad , however, if we're trying to differentiate the type of market movement seen based on holiday-related factors. The most narrow construction would simply be the Christmas-New Years time frame, but this is just a bit too narrow . The happy medium is a time frame that attempts to capture the mass migration of market participation on any given year. This year, the last major tradeable event of 2016–December's Fed Meeting–served as the starting point for the market's holiday season. That much was clear, and the mid-December Fed meeting will almost always fill the same role on years where markets are tuned in to what the Fed is…(read more)

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