MBS Day Ahead: The Waiting Continues

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Not much will be able to change about the recent analysis until markets actually make a move. In a nutshell, the recent analysis holds that we've been waiting for a breakout from a consolidative range that began with the highs and lows seen in October. Every subsequent high/low has occurred in an increasingly narrow range. In technical terms (i.e. when we apply math to the market movement in order to glean cues on momentum and important levels) bonds are behaving slightly bullishly within the confines of this narrow range. To wit, some short-term momentum indicators like the Fast Stochastic (in the middle section of the following chart) are actually suggesting bonds are 'overbought.' That's largely a factor of the narrow range though. It makes more sense to pay more attention…(read more)

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