MBS Day Ahead: Time For That Mid-October Craziness in Bonds


Posted To: MBS Commentary

Ah mid-October… All too often in the 2009-2014 time frame, we'd seen abrupt reversals of trends at this time of month. We haven't really been on the lookout for that old behavior because 2014 seemed to mark a shift in that trend. 2014 itself was easily attributed to the massive sell-off in Chinese stocks. 2015 was mysteriously sideways. And 2016 was understandably sideways ahead of the election. Even in 2017's version of October so far, we haven't seen nearly the same amount of back-and-forth seen in the 2009-2014 time frame, but as of this morning we are arguably seeing the same pattern begin to play out as bonds are abruptly weaker just days after confirming a positive shift. Analysts scrambled to explain the move overnight and there's really no cohesive conclusion….(read more)

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