MBS Day Ahead: Time to Battle a Familiar Enemy After Weaker NFP


Posted To: MBS Commentary

NFP came out much weaker this morning (102k vs 190k forecast). That's a fairly weak reading, and a bigger "miss" than we normally see. Importantly though, it's definitely not outside the realm of "bigger misses and beats." Case in point, last month's reading was just revised up from 287k to 320k. On the other end of the spectrum , September's numbers (reported in October) left NFP at a mere 14k. So in the grand scheme of things, this 102k reading does little the change the prevailing averages unless it's joined by several successive misses. The following chart gives an idea of how steady the series has been since 2012. Granted, the past decade has been nowhere near as strong as the 90's, but nothing likely will be. Much has been made of the wage growth…(read more)

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