MBS Day Ahead: Trading Patterns a Bigger Story Than The Data


Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the day just past, bonds started out in stronger territory only to lose ground by the closing bell. This wasn't necessarily destined to be the case, but a rather weak 7yr Treasury auction suggested that the recently bottomless demand for Treasuries may indeed have a limit. The next biggest move of the day happened at the 3pm CME close. This is notable because it suggests trading itself is a bigger motivation than economic fundamentals–at least this week. In the day ahead, we can expect the same patterns to continue, with the economic data of little importance next to any potential tradeflow -driven or technical moves. Case in point, the 8:30am econ data has had no impact. We're more likely to see a reaction to the times on the clock that affect liquidity (like 9:30am, noon, or 3pm…(read more)

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