MBS Day Ahead: Trading Range on Borrowed Time

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

For all of the potential market movers that anyone can discuss so far in 2019, we really haven't seen any concerted effort to take yields higher or lower from key technical levels. The higher of those levels was implied by late 2018 trading and the floor was seen 2 days into 2019. These can be seen as the upper and lower horizontal lines on today's chart. But bonds weren't content to merely trade in that historically narrow range. By February, the horizontal levels shrunk from 2.82 to 2.75, and from 2.55 to 2.62. And even then, the predisposition has been to trade narrower and narrower (yellow lines). This so-called consolidation range is now clearly living on borrowed time , as it won't take much movement in either direction to break. Keep in mind that when the yellow lines…(read more)

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