MBS Day Ahead: What Do Bonds Care About Right Now, And Can The Answer Help Us?

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

It's no mystery at this point that the US bond market has exited its steep, directional, and super friendly move to long-term lows over the past few days. While yields are starting the day in slightly better shape than yesterday, they're still high enough to keep that negative confirmation intact as we head into the rest of the week's data and events. Looking at a medium-term chart of 10yr yield candlesticks (hourly), we can see most of the relevant technical considerations . The dotted teal line highlights that steep/directional/friendly trend I just mentioned, while the yellow lines highlight the broader trends that are converging heading into Friday's NFP. Meanwhile, the horizontal lines remind us of the pivot points we should be keeping an eye on. Note the break above 2…(read more)

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