MBS RECAP: 4 Year Prophecy Fulfilled; Now What?

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

10yr yields were as low as 1.24% and ended the day at 1.27% after a decent amount of volatility. MBS gained almost a quarter point, but mortgage lenders did not generally improve rate sheets by that much (and some not at all). Back in the day (but not too far…), it was hard not to notice that the bond market had a habit of hitting long-term low yields on years that ended in 3 and 8. This began in 1993 and worked out perfectly until 2008. It was the topic of a small amount of inconsequential debate in 2013 as yields were still really low, but had technically bottomed out in 2012. The prophecy was then forgetting in 2018 because, clearly, it wasn't anywhere close to happening at that point. Enter 2020 and the rapid rush to new all-time low yields. Consider that in the context of 2012 and…(read more)

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