MBS RECAP: Another Chance to Not Get Your Hopes Up

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Tiny pockets of gains have come and gone in the vast sea of red that's dominated 2018 so far. Each pocket has attempted to lure optimists into a "bull trap." In other words, originators want to be bullish on rates, so they're more likely to take the best available opportunities to get bullish–especially if no such opportunities have presented themselves recently. Unfortunately, we're in a pervasive uptrend in rates, and what look like tiny pockets of opportunity have actually been periodic consolidations that help the selling-spree catch its breath before rates continue higher. Is it the same story with the past 2 days of stability? In all likelihood. Granted, the bear case for bonds is i ncreasingly being priced-in , discussed, and understood among traders, but in this…(read more)

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