MBS RECAP: Bonds Cheer Weak Inflation Data and Fed Forecasts

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Heading into the day, we knew we were looking at 2 key market movers in the form of the CPI data and the afternoon's Fed festivities (which include an announcement, economic projections, and a Yellen press conference). The morning's inflation data got the party started with Core annual CPI coming in at 1.7 again. This was notable it had just ticked up to 1.8 for the first time in 6 months when it was last reported a month ago. The move up to 1.8 looked like the start of a bounce back toward 2%. Today's regression reminds markets of inflation's intractability. Bonds looked ready for the inflation data to tell a different story as rates were pushing against their recent ceiling. The weaker data led to an immediate surge back into the safety of the prevailing range. From there…(read more)

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