MBS RECAP: Bonds Mostly Ignore Retails Sales Data

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

This morning's Retail Sales report was arguably the biggest-ticket of the week in terms of economic data. It speaks to the ongoing level of uncertainty that we saw almost no reaction despite a headline of +0.1 vs median forecast of +0.6, at least at first glance. There were some caveats underneath the headline. These included fluctuations in fuel prices as well as a substantial positive revision to last month's numbers. In other words, the data may have actually made a decent enough case for "no reaction" in bonds. Even then, volume was very light and bonds continued looking most willing to take cues from stocks. That said, we can't say that with utter certainty because stocks didn't do much today either (the conclusion is based on the day's shared peaks/valleys…(read more)

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