MBS RECAP: How Low Can We Go?

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

The notion of contrarian indicators is pretty interesting when it comes to the bond market, at least when it comes to investor sentiment. I take part in my fair share of sentiment surveys and have had a few occasions to talk to the strategy desks that conduct them. In a moment of analyst to analyst candor, I was once told that most trade desks use such surveys to find out what the masses are likely to do so they can advise the opposite. Granted, that's a bit of an oversimplification, but the important point is that there is opportunity in identifying a pervasive belief. As I discussed last week, as long as there was a pervasive belief that bond yields were too low and "had to" bounce soon , the rally could continue as savvy investors would continue to force the hands of less savvy…(read more)

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