MBS RECAP: NFP Swings For Fences, But Still Comes Up Short

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

This morning's commentary was titled "NFP Doesn't Matter (Even If It Looks Like It Does)." Apparently NFP didn't like being called out because it did everything in its power to prove me wrong. Ultimately though, it would need to create momentum that lasts beyond today in order to join the ranks of jobs reports that have been this much stronger than expected. As it stands, it wasn't able to create momentum that lasted more than 5 minutes. Those 5 minutes were fairly brutal however. By 8:35am, 10yr yields had launched from 1.79-ish to nearly 1.86%. They stayed in that range for more than an hour, but for those of us drinking the "NFP doesn't matter" kool-aid, the writing was already on the wall. Here it was: an obligatory knee-jerk reaction to a massively…(read more)

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