MBS RECAP: Small Victory as Broader Battle Continues

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

As 2019 winds down, investors have never been so broadly certain about the overall market thesis. Unfortunately, that thesis calls for unavoidable uncertainty and the inability to clear it up very quickly. Reason being: we need to see if global economic data is going to reverse course and make improvements. We also need to see how the US/China trade negotiations will evolve. Trade is so important because investors are viewing it as one of the most time advance indicators imaginable. In other words, if a trade deal happens, it may not be fully reflected in the economic data for several months. Trickle down effects could take years. Granted, a deal will probably happen, but the details and the timeline remain intentionally mysterious. That's one of the key reasons markets seem to put too…(read more)

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