MBS RECAP: Stock Selling, Month-End Buying, and Short-Covering = Oh My!

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

I'm not sure I've heard anyone genuinely say "oh my!" by way of exclamatory response in quite a while. But the odds increased today with a rather surprising 3/8ths point gain in MBS and a 7.5bp drop in 10yr yields. Why surprising? First of all, there was nothing big and meaningful on the event calendar, and even in hindsight, we didn't see any big news or any big piece of data that motivated the trading response. Moreover, it would not have been a surprise to see bonds stick to their recent sideways trend through the end of this holiday-shortened Spring Break week. After all, we're still not expecting to see true colors until the first week of April. That borderline complacency ended up creating an opportunity for volatility. Sorry for so many words ending in "y"…(read more)

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