MBS Week Ahead: Best Case Scenario: The Range Just Got Wider


Posted To: MBS Commentary

2019 had been (and perhaps continues to be) dominated by an increasingly narrow range. To appreciate just how narrow things have been, consider the month of February had the tightest trading range since 1979. We'd been tracking the fairly linear consolidation pattern since the end of January (yellow lines in the following chart). The upper line, in particular, didn't need to be adjusted a single time before being broken last week. The lower line was also fairly well behaved and only needed to be adjusted slightly lower starting 2 weeks ago. This adjustment process was very much on our radar considering it's not until mid March that we'd expect to see more serious buying or selling momentum justified by data and events. In other words, the range was narrowing quickly enough that…(read more)

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