MBS Week Ahead: Big Economic Data and Big Decisions For Bonds

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

This week brings several top tier economic reports as well as a Fed announcement. Combine that with today's month-end trading process, it makes for a robust and evenly-distributed slate of potential market movement. The caveat is that we haven't seen any pronounced reactions to economic data recently. One notable exception is the NFP reading from the beginning of the month (the one that came in at 103k), which helped bonds rally after 3 days of selling (and perhaps to stave off the negative trend seen in the 2nd chart below. The top portion of the chart relates recent movement to horizontal pivot points. Most notable among these (as far as this week is concerned) is 2.96. It acted as a clearly-defined ceiling earlier in the year, and now stands a chance to become a floor. While yields…(read more)

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