MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Defend The Ceiling Amid Inflation Data, Auctions, Fed, and Brexit

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

At first glance, this week's economic calendar is fairly light, with Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) being the only upper-tier report in terms of potential market movement. Even then, we haven't seen as much of a reaction to recent examples compared to CPI reports in 2017 and early 2018. Chalk that up to the fact that Core y/y CPI has fallen from early 2018 highs and leveled off in the "safe" 2.1-2.3% range. Investors currently don't see any real chance of a return to 1.7% in the near future, nor are they too concerned about a break above 2.3%. Were either of those things to happen in the next few months, the market's willingness to react would ramp up quickly. Wednesday's forecast is for 2.1%. Though not technically economic data, the Treasury auction…(read more)

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