MBS Week Ahead: Year-End Momentum Decisions Approaching

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Markets will be getting back into the swing of things (probably slowly) today after the Thanksgiving holiday. As we discussed excessively last week, nothing about the last 3 or 4 trading days will necessarily have any bearing on how this week plays out. We may well see a lopsided battle between buyers and sellers resulting in a quick move back toward recent high yields, or an unexpectedly strong move to the lowest yields since September. If we get the weak move, it would mean that bonds opted to bounce fairly perfectly right where they bounced in late October (3.03% in terms of 10yr yields). If we get the strong move, it's meaning would depend on what else is going on in other markets. For instance, if bonds rally simply because stocks are tanking, that would be different than bonds rallying…(read more)

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