Time To Start Asking The Tough Questions


Posted To: MBS Commentary

In about 2 weeks, the big bond rally of 2019 will officially be 1 year old (because it actually began in the 2nd week of November). This has been a uniquely interesting year for the bond market. Granted, there are plenty of other years with the same sort of big overall movement, blatantly obvious motivations, paradoxically subtle motivations, and uncertainty-inducing curveballs, but few have combined all of those components. The uniqueness of the rally makes it hard to say exactly what might happen next. In fairness, it's usually stupid to try to predict what will happen next when it comes to financial markets. The long-term chart of rate movement is littered with the metaphorical corpses of traders who thought they were seeing a particular pattern only for the present day iteration to…(read more)

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